Montijo
0xbda59a685875fd870f12be4e90e98fbf06b62224
- Realised P&L
- $2.43
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $3.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.065 | $3.25 | −$16.75 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? · Yes | 0.105 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$53.16 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.72 |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.62 |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.70at 0.629Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?
- +$32.18at 0.788Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?
- +$18.15at 0.786Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 16:18 | Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 09-15 11:38 | Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 09-13 20:39 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.11723 | $11.72 |
| 09-13 20:37 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.0986580807 | $8.66 |
| 09-13 20:23 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.65 |
| 09-11 12:24 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 00:37 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.19 | $20.33 |
| 09-07 11:06 | Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.73 | $23.36 |
| 09-06 15:01 | Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.8038083333 | $96.46 |
| 08-31 17:19 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? | BUY | 0.79 | $43.45 |
| 08-31 17:16 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 08-22 13:43 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 21:25 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.7 | $105.00 |
| 08-21 21:23 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.0134505998 | $1.47 |
| 08-19 22:00 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.5 | $25.00 |