PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

iusnaturale

0xbd06b49ac2168a4a48fcfb219d323549a459a6f5

Realised P&L
$-68.33
Volume
$13.0k
Markets traded
93
Open portfolio
$92.56

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded93
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Federal District? · Yes0.9690.981$19.62+$0.24
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? · No0.8700.969$19.38+$1.98
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? · No0.7400.955$12.91+$2.91
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Sergipe? · Yes0.9900.980$9.80−$0.10
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from São Paulo? · Yes0.9900.952$9.52−$0.38
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? · No0.5000.735$7.35+$2.35
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.1600.115$7.19−$2.81
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.4700.415$4.15−$0.55
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? · Yes0.4800.265$2.65−$2.15
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes0.5900.000$0.00−$5.90
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3900.000$0.00−$19.50
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? · No0.7000.000$0.00−$7.00
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes0.8500.000$0.00−$5.00
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? · Yes0.0820.000$0.00−$6.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-06 17:05Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Federal District?BUY0.969$9.85
10-06 16:55Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.47$4.70
10-06 16:52Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?BUY0.99$9.90
10-06 16:49Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?BUY0.99$9.90
10-06 16:47Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?BUY0.48$4.80
10-06 16:46Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?BUY0.5$5.00
10-06 16:44Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?BUY0.87$17.40
10-06 16:40Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?BUY0.7399999734$10.00
10-06 16:36Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.16$10.00
07-14 06:06Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.39$19.50
06-30 20:08Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to AdvanceSELL0.63$18.89
06-30 17:46Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?SELL0.12$10.91
06-30 17:45Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?BUY0.1099999913$10.00
06-30 17:30Will France win on 2026-06-30?SELL0.76$22.80
06-30 17:30Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?SELL0.29$22.31