0xbcadc78ff5175c59005c32fa1e637c38427d1dcf
0xbcadc78ff5175c59005c32fa1e637c38427d1dcf
- Realised P&L
- $2.41
- Volume
- $58.12
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $16.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.964 | $2.30 | +$0.34 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.925 | $2.16 | +$0.20 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.963 | $2.10 | +$0.14 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.855 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.984 | $2.00 | +$0.04 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.845 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 · Yes | 0.420 | 0.405 | $1.92 | −$0.07 |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? · No | 0.310 | 0.290 | $1.87 | −$0.13 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.38at 0.675Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$0.42at 0.823Will Trump and Putin not meet?
- +$-1.43at 0.320Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 10:19 | Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | BUY | 0.4199999325 | $1.99 |
| 09-27 16:57 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8499997025 | $2.00 |
| 09-27 16:24 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.00 |
| 09-27 16:10 | Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 08:45 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.55 |
| 08-07 18:49 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6699999859 | $3.32 |
| 04-20 10:53 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.8399996229 | $1.96 |
| 04-19 19:18 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999998163 | $1.96 |
| 04-19 19:17 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.96 |
| 04-19 19:16 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.96 |
| 04-19 19:11 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.8229998459 | $1.96 |
| 04-14 17:01 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6699999932 | $5.88 |
| 04-09 17:40 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6899997113 | $1.96 |
| 04-09 17:36 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8199998159 | $1.96 |
| 04-09 16:44 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.961999999 | $1.96 |