0xbc4c512b894dba258958de5271bcc4c3ff27dd8f
- Realised P&L
- $-4.82
- Volume
- $468.39
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $2.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · No | 0.820 | 0.815 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.835 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.042 | $0.32 | −$0.68 |
| Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.747 | 0.146 | $0.20 | −$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.25at 0.373Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.02at 0.937Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.960Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$0.01at 0.977Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- +$-0.17at 0.042Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 14:31 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 14:25 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.993 | $1.01 |
| 09-01 14:16 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.9719995529 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 15:16 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8699992344 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 15:10 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.477 | $1.31 |
| 08-28 15:10 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $1.03 |
| 06-11 08:40 | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 05-25 17:53 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | BUY | 0.9859997614 | $1.00 |
| 05-24 14:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.976 | $1.02 |
| 05-16 18:17 | XRP Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 18:16 | XRP Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | SELL | 0.84 | $1.08 |
| 05-16 18:15 | XRP Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 17:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.959999616 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 17:53 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9369999869 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 17:52 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.935 | $0.99 |