fff4892
0xbc4251fe6ce3d0b5e65012e18e08b416e94000ad
- Realised P&L
- $12.52
- Volume
- $206.03
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $76.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration82.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 20:36 | Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:26 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:16 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0409999622 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:15 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:13 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:12 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:11 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:54 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.0379999641 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:48 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:43 | Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? | BUY | 0.1904761905 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:06 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:02 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 17:59 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 14:43 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6099999961 | $50.00 |