0xbc3e0e480f7f75b76b96bdc46ece11ab6f3f6693
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $202.1k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.968 | 0.993 | $3.2k | +$76.32 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.952 | 0.997 | $970.11 | +$43.57 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.005 | $3.46 | −$1.54 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.002 | $0.75 | −$4.25 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $0.36 | −$4.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$936.22at 0.883Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$595.47at 0.890US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$591.90at 0.868Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$477.70at 0.862US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
- +$391.24at 0.928Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 17:04 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9649999997 | $100.00 |
| 09-05 17:03 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9649999999 | $326.41 |
| 09-05 17:03 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $1.3k |
| 09-05 17:02 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.89155631 | $1.8k |
| 09-02 17:16 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9419999998 | $250.00 |
| 09-02 17:14 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9618130613 | $796.44 |
| 09-02 17:14 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9572253707 | $1.1k |
| 09-02 17:14 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9362047098 | $714.52 |
| 09-02 17:13 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9766650355 | $954.58 |
| 08-27 18:00 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9638668986 | $362.08 |
| 08-23 15:04 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0079475462 | $5.00 |
| 08-23 15:04 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 08-23 15:04 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0068886776 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 17:34 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9649898475 | $1.5k |
| 08-03 17:34 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $2.0k |