Rufr
0xbb5d48f305a9c1cc42a838fbc8b85f629c2bfa33
- Realised P&L
- $-8.8k
- Volume
- $88.8k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.78at 0.037US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$30.18at 0.564Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$-17.56at 0.026Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 10:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.45 |
| 07-14 09:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 05-25 07:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.359999976 | $6.59 |
| 04-26 16:00 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.08 |
| 04-20 18:04 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.33 |
| 04-14 14:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799998888 | $1.23 |
| 04-09 16:19 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999995 | $189.16 |
| 04-09 16:17 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY | 0.0261970084 | $30.00 |
| 04-09 16:16 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $80.00 |
| 04-08 17:52 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0437372389 | $32.53 |
| 04-08 17:26 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.994 | $31.97 |
| 04-06 13:25 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.0370000013 | $1.19 |
| 04-02 17:32 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $9.03 |
| 03-30 08:47 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.0130000003 | $1.14 |
| 03-26 15:01 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0453251642 | $1.34 |