PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Rufr

0xbb5d48f305a9c1cc42a838fbc8b85f629c2bfa33

Realised P&L
$-8.8k
Volume
$88.8k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$3.0k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-9.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration50.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration48.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1400.045$1.4k$3.0k
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · Yes0.1070.033$758.88$1.7k
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4780.055$311.01$2.4k
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3360.185$137.78$112.80
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes0.1720.029$130.11$653.05
NATO dissolves before 2027? · Yes0.0960.015$57.11$320.99
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? · Yes0.1400.033$48.75$161.14
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0550.009$45.96$254.04
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1210.025$40.09$158.09
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes0.2000.040$15.80$64.20
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2200.029$2.85$19.15
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? · Yes0.0180.000$0.00$32.41
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00$1.14
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0440.000$0.00$32.53

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-23 10:50Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1$1.45
07-14 09:08Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1$10.00
05-25 07:52Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.359999976$6.59
04-26 16:00Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?BUY0.002$1.08
04-20 18:04Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?BUY0.01$1.33
04-14 14:28Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1799998888$1.23
04-09 16:19Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1199999995$189.16
04-09 16:17Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?BUY0.0261970084$30.00
04-09 16:16Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?BUY0.2$80.00
04-08 17:52Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?BUY0.0437372389$32.53
04-08 17:26US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?SELL0.994$31.97
04-06 13:25US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?BUY0.0370000013$1.19
04-02 17:32Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?BUY0.15$9.03
03-30 08:47US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY0.0130000003$1.14
03-26 15:01Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?BUY0.0453251642$1.34