0xb9fefa9530f4a04d8500daded06db47ebaf21075
0xb9fefa9530f4a04d8500daded06db47ebaf21075
- Realised P&L
- $20.80
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $8.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.915 | 0.974 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? · No | 0.620 | 0.910 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.226 | 0.165 | $1.46 | −$0.54 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.865 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? · No | 0.980 | 0.975 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.025 | $0.78 | −$1.22 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.035 | $0.31 | −$0.69 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.180 | $0.29 | −$0.71 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.125 | $0.17 | −$0.83 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.003 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.11at 0.101US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$18.10at 0.222Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
- +$9.93at 0.480MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$7.97at 0.207Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
- +$6.28at 0.527Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 00:19 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-11 00:13 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 04:13 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 04:00 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 22:45 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.99799901 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 19:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 12:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $5.62 |
| 08-03 11:14 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:03 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:03 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:02 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:01 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:01 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:01 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:01 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |