0x44d10ad975c3b6b921badf9882e4c281a45c4ed3
0xb9e976e6eea209501c4b34773f6e624f1197e211
- Realised P&L
- $6.8k
- Volume
- $178.8k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $6.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.165 | $2.6k | +$1.6k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.497 | 0.165 | $995.72 | −$2.0k |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.040 | $671.45 | −$2.6k |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.029 | $570.00 | −$2.0k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.045 | $405.00 | −$495.00 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.015 | $363.42 | −$136.57 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.065 | $214.24 | −$1.1k |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.043 | $85.00 | −$95.00 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.055 | $58.93 | −$91.07 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.026 | $53.00 | −$147.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.262 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.1kat 0.530Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$3.4kat 0.496Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$3.2kat 0.596Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.7kat 0.483US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.740Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 21:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.22 | $104.72 |
| 09-12 21:02 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 19:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3499999997 | $100.00 |
| 05-02 21:27 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999993 | $150.00 |
| 05-02 21:22 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0199493144 | $500.00 |
| 04-01 21:29 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0624445639 | $1000.00 |
| 04-01 21:26 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.62 | $3.0k |
| 04-01 21:21 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.497127432 | $3.0k |
| 04-01 21:20 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5499999998 | $1000.00 |
| 04-01 21:19 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6474558545 | $2.0k |
| 04-01 21:18 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.0k |
| 04-01 21:18 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | BUY | 0.47 | $2.0k |
| 03-10 02:16 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.4571157367 | $1000.00 |
| 03-10 02:16 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.6799999999 | $1000.00 |
| 03-10 02:14 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.6999999999 | $1000.00 |