PolyBot

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Traders

Shinigami-19

0xb74b25d4123f5c300aa0bce2e740c6d355e82c32

Realised P&L
$3.70
Volume
$287.11
Markets traded
36
Open portfolio
$48.85

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded36
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample23 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)95.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes0.4100.958$9.34+$5.34
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · No0.4900.455$9.29$0.71
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.3670.512$5.59+$1.59
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes0.1500.082$5.45$4.55
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.5100.605$4.75+$0.74
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? · No0.8830.984$4.46+$0.46
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9630.983$4.08+$0.08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.7200.715$3.97$0.03
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes0.9000.390$1.73$2.27
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes0.2700.013$0.20$3.80
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? · Yes0.7200.000$0.00$3.00
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes0.8600.000$0.00$4.00
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? · Yes0.4600.000$0.00$3.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-09 21:42Will France win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.9849999967$3.00
07-06 20:53Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?SELL0.91$7.00
07-03 13:30Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?BUY0.5199999844$4.00
07-03 13:29Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?BUY0.69$4.00
07-03 13:29Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?BUY0.859999914$1.00
07-02 16:45Will France win on 2026-07-04?BUY0.84$4.00
07-02 16:44Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?BUY0.7649999799$4.00
06-28 00:31Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?BUY0.8599999828$3.00
06-28 00:30Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?BUY0.4599999264$3.00
06-28 00:30Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?BUY0.4699999702$3.00
06-28 00:28Will France win on 2026-06-30?BUY0.77$3.00
06-28 00:28Will United States win on 2026-07-01?BUY0.7099999503$3.00
06-28 00:27Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?BUY0.7199999808$3.00
06-28 00:24Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?BUY0.8699999913$3.00
06-25 21:39Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?SELL0.03$0.18