0xb57863715c51905c1d2e4ee43f701a4667d8018a
0xb57863715c51905c1d2e4ee43f701a4667d8018a
- Realised P&L
- $4.21
- Volume
- $461.33
- Markets traded
- 156
- Open portfolio
- $4.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded156
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.735 | $2.10 | −$0.19 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20? · No | 0.440 | 0.445 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? · Down | 0.700 | 0.615 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.045 | $0.27 | −$2.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.60at 0.237Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$7.16at 0.249Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$4.64at 0.330Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E35?
- +$4.59at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20?
- +$3.68at 0.389Will Trump say "Kamala" during remarks in New York?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 07:07 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 23:06 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 03:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 14? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 19:01 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 11:01 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 02:52 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 17:38 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 17:14 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 07:58 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:24 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:24 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:23 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:05 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 01:52 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $192 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |