Baallberith
0xb5283cc6023ba782ea3f168389d2f1b66582a113
- Realised P&L
- $3.48
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $9.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump deport 500-600k people? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.121 | $4.03 | +$2.03 |
| Will Trump deport 400-500k people? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.620 | $2.38 | +$1.38 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.135 | $1.32 | −$3.68 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.243 | 0.154 | $1.27 | −$0.73 |
| Will Trump deport 600-700k people? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.018 | $0.29 | −$0.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.88at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$4.56at 0.180Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
- +$4.26at 0.190US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$4.09at 0.550Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$3.13at 0.390US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 17:51 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.11 |
| 03-26 15:01 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.242999928 | $2.00 |
| 03-26 14:59 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.242 | $0.87 |
| 03-26 14:58 | Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.33 |
| 03-04 17:15 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 03-04 01:28 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | SELL | 0.048 | $2.46 |
| 03-04 01:27 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 03-04 01:26 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | BUY | 0.0487077443 | $5.00 |
| 03-04 01:23 | Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony? | SELL | 0.0083808946 | $0.62 |
| 03-04 01:22 | Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony? | BUY | 0.0134721476 | $1.00 |
| 03-02 18:53 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.269999937 | $3.00 |
| 03-02 18:53 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0669999798 | $3.00 |
| 03-02 18:50 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 03-02 18:50 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0649999712 | $2.00 |
| 02-28 23:17 | Khamenei seen in public by February 28? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.33 |