nicolasi
0xb4fc42ee4807f9c88d8f4e85e51748dc5182d082
- Realised P&L
- $279.64
- Volume
- $47.0k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $53.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $25.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.948 | 0.992 | $12.14 | +$0.54 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.280 | $11.09 | −$0.40 |
| Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · No | 0.697 | 0.840 | $5.04 | +$0.86 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? · No | 0.498 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.77 |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.01 |
| Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$166.87at 0.630Trail Blazers vs. Bulls
- +$55.00at 0.45076ers vs. Clippers
- +$53.88at 0.748Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
- +$52.00at 0.480Hawks vs. Pacers
- +$51.00at 0.500Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 11:35 | Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9959999841 | $25.00 |
| 08-24 11:32 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.991 | $495.50 |
| 07-19 03:10 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.991 | $935.50 |
| 07-07 09:50 | Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.996 | $13.93 |
| 07-07 09:50 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.4k |
| 07-07 09:49 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.50 |
| 06-16 02:09 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $13.30 |
| 06-08 09:04 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.997 | $13.96 |
| 05-26 02:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $53.95 |
| 05-26 02:03 | Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.98 |
| 05-26 02:02 | Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 05-16 06:22 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.57 |
| 05-16 06:22 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in May? | BUY | 0.973 | $13.62 |
| 05-16 06:20 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.973 | $734.62 |
| 05-16 06:19 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.978 | $748.17 |