MuscleKitten
0xb307ae114d9c2c2f3dde6f1aee5f2ae23ad6412e
- Realised P&L
- $-16.86
- Volume
- $5.9k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $31.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30? · Yes | 0.697 | 0.700 | $13.99 | +$0.05 |
| Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.610 | $6.10 | +$1.60 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.550 | $4.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.425 | $4.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.190 | $1.90 | −$0.60 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.049 | $0.48 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.36at 0.574Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
- +$13.72at 0.231Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?
- +$11.00at 0.476Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$8.69at 0.535Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$8.62at 0.360Warriors vs. Timberwolves
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 12:46 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $5.00 |
| 05-09 10:22 | Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.39 |
| 05-07 11:49 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.242 | $2.42 |
| 05-06 13:16 | Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m? | BUY | 0.5599999963 | $6.00 |
| 04-08 06:48 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.0049722383 | $3.00 |
| 04-07 17:39 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 04-07 10:51 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.00 |
| 04-06 08:27 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.004 | $6.00 |
| 04-05 15:11 | Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 04-05 15:05 | Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | SELL | 0.495 | $25.71 |
| 04-02 20:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.6299999821 | $12.00 |
| 04-01 16:11 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.48 | $11.04 |
| 04-01 14:57 | Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | BUY | 0.2309999894 | $12.00 |
| 03-23 19:53 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.06 |
| 03-23 11:30 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | SELL | 0.723 | $16.77 |