PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

AAVVAA

0xb2c4fe566f6b499a321764113fc591644fd743e8

Realised P&L
$-4.2k
Volume
$434.3k
Markets traded
404
Open portfolio
$6.5k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded404
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration57.8% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration72.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.3640.185$4.7k$4.6k
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4290.345$1.3k$322.55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.2690.145$200.08$170.91
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes0.2000.095$180.26$199.74
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes0.3600.675$28.12+$13.12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.0810.044$27.00$22.00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? · Yes0.0800.045$9.00$7.00
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.1600.095$8.91$6.09
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · No0.1300.125$4.81$0.19
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0310.013$3.23$4.77
Will Bernie Sanders say "Billion" or "Billionaire" 5+ times in Michigan? · No0.1490.000$0.00$5.00
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? · Yes0.3600.000$0.00$10.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0930.000$0.00$58.00
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? · No0.0530.000$0.00$9.00
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-25 23:39US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?BUY0.1299999859$7.00
07-25 23:38US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?BUY0.08$16.00
07-25 23:38US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY0.0102382726$5.00
07-25 23:37Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?SELL0.2231860645$28.86
07-25 23:36US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?BUY0.1299999958$23.00
07-22 18:54Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?BUY0.359999987$10.00
07-22 18:54Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?BUY0.3099999622$5.00
07-22 18:53US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.3599999904$15.00
07-22 18:52Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3599999976$65.00
07-22 18:49Will Dow say "Win" during earnings call?BUY0.7099999702$5.00
07-22 18:49Will the earnings call not air?BUY0.0104465422$3.00
07-22 18:49Will Dow say "Iran" during earnings call?BUY0.259999948$3.00
07-22 18:49Will Dow say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call?BUY0.0691098525$5.00
07-22 18:49Will Dow say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?BUY0.0699999797$3.00
07-22 18:48Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.1159999939$15.00
Trader AAVVAA · PolyBot