AAVVAA
0xb2c4fe566f6b499a321764113fc591644fd743e8
- Realised P&L
- $-7.3k
- Volume
- $440.2k
- Markets traded
- 409
- Open portfolio
- $4.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded409
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.5kat 0.285Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$7.4kat 0.122Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.076US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$722.13at 0.031US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$426.16at 0.172Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 04:20 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 04:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.0219999979 | $10.00 |
| 09-05 04:18 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999962 | $30.00 |
| 09-05 04:17 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $12.00 |
| 09-05 04:15 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3515968342 | $100.00 |
| 09-05 04:15 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2322206096 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 20:14 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2610779845 | $80.00 |
| 08-12 20:13 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999994 | $300.00 |
| 08-12 20:12 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1263306832 | $150.00 |
| 08-12 20:12 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0341278502 | $50.00 |
| 08-05 16:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.1747589659 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 16:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.025 | $7.00 |
| 07-25 23:39 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.1299999859 | $7.00 |
| 07-25 23:38 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $16.00 |
| 07-25 23:38 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.0102382726 | $5.00 |