0xb1DBA9476E613C0FCE6f8Fb47b03C0C6E6B29292-1772766550331
0xb1dba9476e613c0fce6f8fb47b03c0c6e6b29292
- Realised P&L
- $-3.12
- Volume
- $79.53
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $21.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.983 | $5.28 | +$0.11 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.590 | 0.575 | $4.78 | −$0.12 |
| Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%? · No | 0.980 | 0.940 | $2.77 | −$0.12 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No | 0.950 | 0.888 | $2.41 | −$0.17 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.944 | 0.975 | $2.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.395 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.860 | $1.99 | +$0.39 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? · No | 0.635 | 0.108 | $0.51 | −$2.49 |
| Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.54 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.21at 0.940Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$0.05at 0.969Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.04at 0.986Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$0.04at 0.963Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$0.02at 0.974Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 06:27 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 05:56 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? | BUY | 0.6349999259 | $3.00 |
| 09-17 02:53 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.58 |
| 09-07 02:13 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.89 |
| 09-01 02:55 | Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? | BUY | 0.154 | $1.54 |
| 07-13 02:39 | Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999051 | $1.60 |
| 06-25 03:21 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9739998763 | $6.00 |
| 06-10 02:52 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.962999557 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 02:10 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9439999773 | $2.00 |
| 05-08 03:12 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699998912 | $1.90 |
| 04-14 08:48 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9689994793 | $1.42 |
| 04-02 07:18 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999971 | $6.50 |
| 03-27 05:48 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9619999963 | $5.17 |
| 03-24 08:05 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5899999542 | $4.90 |
| 03-18 06:58 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.9859999994 | $3.16 |