Ben2468
0xb177c841a6688521cc5de8b84740619877b550ce
- Realised P&L
- $-18.70
- Volume
- $683.46
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $81.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? · Yes | 0.321 | 0.770 | $66.71 | +$38.91 |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.984 | 0.989 | $7.91 | +$0.04 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.762 | 0.817 | $4.08 | +$0.27 |
| Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · No | 0.955 | 0.975 | $3.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · No | 0.968 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15? · No | 0.997 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET · Up | 0.990 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.01 |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 1.5 · Under | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET · Down | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.30at 0.460New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.69at 0.921Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5
- +$0.57at 0.996US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
- +$0.44at 0.971Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?
- +$0.40at 0.487Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 17:30 | US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Gabriela Ruse | BUY | 0.98 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 12:15 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.995 | $4.00 |
| 08-06 12:13 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.9799999569 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 12:07 | Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:57 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 500m and 600m by August 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.01 |
| 08-03 21:26 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.99 |
| 08-03 21:24 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 500m and 600m by August 31? | BUY | 0.9909999993 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 21:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 21:13 | Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in July? | BUY | 0.995 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 21:09 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on August 4? | BUY | 0.9909999995 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 21:07 | Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.992 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 21:05 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 20:55 | Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.3168175592 | $20.00 |
| 08-03 20:49 | Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.9729999672 | $4.00 |
| 08-03 20:47 | Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.9769999481 | $6.00 |