PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

endoption

0xb16dc3169b090c54d1f73321919a03485ad6f064

Realised P&L
$-722.25
Volume
$41.7k
Markets traded
756
Open portfolio
$11.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded756
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration41.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026? · No0.8820.925$4.7k+$217.73
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · Yes0.8270.825$4.1k−$11.30
Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027? · No0.8250.740$1.1k−$133.03
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026? · No0.9190.973$754.71+$41.12
Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.7740.985$299.09+$63.96
Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? · No0.8000.860$86.00+$6.00
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · Yes0.4520.440$59.76−$1.57
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.7700.625$39.99−$9.28
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET · Up0.6800.000$0.00−$5.00
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET · Up0.7600.000$0.00−$5.00
Ethereum Up or Down - August 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET · Up0.7200.000$0.00−$5.00
Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET · Down0.5900.000$0.00−$4.99
Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET · Down0.6400.000$0.00−$4.51
Ethereum Up or Down - August 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET · Up0.6900.000$0.00−$4.93
Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET · Down0.6700.000$0.00−$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-14 23:21Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.89$26.70
10-14 17:44Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.95$19.00
10-14 17:44Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.9485714286$66.40
10-14 12:59Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.891$495.00
10-14 12:10Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.923$18.47
10-14 12:06Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.934$18.69
10-14 12:05Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.934$15.92
10-12 17:07Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.914$64.89
10-12 17:07Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9372361148$71.21
10-08 15:05Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.8419399031$222.47
10-08 15:04Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9336172918$146.86
09-29 01:14Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?BUY0.8988600987$122.07
09-28 18:15Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.97999$4.90
09-28 18:14Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.9733333333$5.84
09-28 18:14Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.9744540491$10.71