0xaeb82a8aaa8827394e8e22ba9b2e5eab8203b043
0xaeb82a8aaa8827394e8e22ba9b2e5eab8203b043
- Realised P&L
- $-5.09
- Volume
- $14.2k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $12.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.715 | $2.80 | +$0.80 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.955 | $2.55 | +$0.55 |
| Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.048 | $2.02 | +$1.02 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.510 | 0.715 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.649 | 0.825 | $1.23 | +$0.26 |
| Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.936 | $0.95 | −$0.04 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.125 | $0.54 | −$0.46 |
| Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.110 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.045 | $0.18 | −$0.82 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.045 | $0.09 | −$0.91 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.011 | $0.07 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.43at 0.268US strikes Iraq by February 28?
- +$5.39at 0.271US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$4.00at 0.200US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$3.35at 0.230US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
- +$1.36at 0.595Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 00:46 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 10:09 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.757 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 03:08 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.9703692418 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 02:48 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.9439999773 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 02:29 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.937999955 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 23:32 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 23:32 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? | BUY | 0.9739999922 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 18:18 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.9539999828 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 18:18 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 23:25 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 23:12 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 16:53 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.9939992147 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 16:53 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.9939992147 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 14:26 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.72 | $4.48 |
| 07-10 15:40 | Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |