PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

hn4bnjzt04ux

0xaeadacf9d662310a427262d0d22490179c4012e1

Realised P&L
$45.02
Volume
$13.2k
Markets traded
906
Open portfolio
$95.21

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded906
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · Yes0.8700.895$22.82+$0.64
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No0.7300.775$11.11+$0.65
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.8880.775$6.41−$0.94
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2700.125$6.19−$7.20
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026? · No0.8790.924$5.93+$0.29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes0.4900.475$5.02−$0.16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · No0.9020.944$4.29+$0.19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · No0.3300.425$4.16+$0.93
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · Yes0.7000.405$4.02−$2.93
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4300.625$3.75+$1.17
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5800.315$3.68−$3.09
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9040.968$2.96+$0.19
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.2600.245$2.78−$0.17
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026? · No0.9100.920$2.73+$0.03
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? · Yes0.4600.175$2.59−$4.22

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-17 18:24Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?BUY0.83$0.17
10-15 21:39Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?BUY0.8789999969$5.64
10-15 20:59Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?SELL0.4$1.04
10-15 17:54Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?BUY0.7$6.95
10-15 12:36Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?SELL0.93$8.83
10-15 12:29Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?SELL0.93$0.01
10-15 12:29Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?SELL0.93$11.39
10-15 11:52Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?SELL0.93$0.46
10-15 09:58Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?BUY0.8399999493$1.99
10-15 09:51Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?SELL0.4$0.07
10-15 07:52Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?SELL0.93$0.01
10-15 07:52Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?SELL0.93$2.15
10-15 07:49Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?SELL0.4$0.10
10-14 21:30Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.74$0.41
10-14 21:30Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.74$0.55