PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

hn4bnjzt04ux

0xaeadacf9d662310a427262d0d22490179c4012e1

Realised P&L
$124.42
Volume
$12.4k
Markets traded
876
Open portfolio
$138.97

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded876
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · Yes0.4600.685$26.76+$8.79
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · Yes0.8700.855$21.80$0.38
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · No0.5980.775$13.13+$2.99
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5880.610$12.01+$0.43
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No0.7300.705$11.11$0.39
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? · No0.8600.865$10.24+$0.06
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.8700.895$8.73+$0.24
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? · No0.8500.890$4.71+$0.21
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026? · No0.8200.610$4.08$1.41
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4300.445$3.74+$0.13
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9040.951$2.91+$0.14
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? · Yes0.5300.525$2.70$0.03
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? · Yes0.4200.350$2.63$0.53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? · No0.3700.385$2.48+$0.10
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? · No0.6981.000$2.29+$0.69

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 01:43Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?BUY0.5299999091$1.40
08-03 01:41Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?BUY0.5299996174$1.33
08-02 22:47Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026?BUY0.8199999403$5.49
08-02 22:42IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?BUY0.4199999522$3.16
08-02 22:06Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.67$0.31
08-02 21:42US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.44$4.75
08-02 21:40US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.5$1.15
08-02 21:32Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?SELL0.65$8.46
08-02 21:06US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.8699999457$8.49
08-02 16:37US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?SELL0.58$5.20
08-02 11:39US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?BUY0.5799999479$4.01
08-02 11:29US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?BUY0.5799998343$1.19
08-02 09:35Iran full airspace closure by August 31?SELL0.82$0.22
08-02 09:26Iran full airspace closure by August 31?SELL0.81$0.84
08-02 09:11Iran full airspace closure by August 31?SELL0.8$2.33