RomulusAugustulus
0xae91837be6286b658c5faf838a7284017175476d
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $26.7k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.05at 0.354Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$25.20at 0.580US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$19.70at 0.781Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
- +$6.20at 0.690Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
- +$4.42at 0.779Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 19:15 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $4.20 |
| 08-09 17:44 | Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? | BUY | 0.263 | $1.31 |
| 08-01 12:22 | Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | BUY | 0.61 | $18.30 |
| 07-28 14:13 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.77 | $15.40 |
| 07-25 09:35 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.36 | $10.80 |
| 07-21 06:33 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $20.40 |
| 07-20 09:38 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $17.00 |
| 07-10 23:49 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 06-11 14:45 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $59.74 |
| 06-10 15:59 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $22.80 |
| 06-05 08:05 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.47 | $18.80 |
| 06-04 23:08 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $39.53 |
| 06-04 23:06 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 06-04 15:52 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $60.00 |
| 06-04 15:34 | Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.41 | $41.00 |