0xae5eba80194c55c92c7005db80b284aba723aadd
0xae5eba80194c55c92c7005db80b284aba723aadd
- Realised P&L
- $9.24
- Volume
- $369.97
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $7.03
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.727 | $2.91 | +$1.91 |
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.720 | 0.970 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.745 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.715 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.265 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.45at 0.310US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.06at 0.330Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 02:39 | Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:14 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 21:16 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:32 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 02:38 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 02:28 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 17:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 09:37 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 09:36 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 00:19 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 00:18 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 12:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 04:47 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2529999469 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 20:10 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |