adrenvl22
0xade3686ec532a061e2a8ad2d0cb45ec26e623b44
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $282.8k
- Markets traded
- 522
- Open portfolio
- $40.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded522
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$296.73at 0.023Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?
- +$176.31at 0.048US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$86.47at 0.131Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28?
- +$43.80at 0.038Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$40.66at 0.022Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 14:37 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.15 | $16.50 |
| 07-18 14:37 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.401 | $17.04 |
| 07-17 01:12 | Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0166433845 | $3.00 |
| 07-17 01:11 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.0305983966 | $2.00 |
| 07-17 01:09 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.0130000002 | $1.75 |
| 07-17 01:08 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0093279753 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 01:08 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 01:07 | Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0069999986 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 01:07 | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0104723187 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 01:07 | Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0117200319 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 23:51 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.002 | $17.98 |
| 06-30 23:14 | Will the price of Solana be above $70 on July 1? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.36 |
| 06-30 23:11 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $5.72 |
| 06-29 14:42 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $11.70 |
| 06-29 14:42 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.44 |