adrenvl22
0xade3686ec532a061e2a8ad2d0cb45ec26e623b44
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $295.7k
- Markets traded
- 536
- Open portfolio
- $151.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded536
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$295.18at 0.024Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 8?
- +$176.31at 0.048US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$85.06at 0.131Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28?
- +$43.80at 0.038Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$40.49at 0.065Will Solana dip to $100 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 23:33 | GTA VI released by October 31? | BUY | 0.0082467929 | $6.00 |
| 10-10 23:32 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? | SELL | 0.031 | $6.20 |
| 09-28 20:21 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.049 | $2.03 |
| 09-28 16:12 | Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:12 | Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.008501072 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:11 | Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:11 | Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:11 | Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:10 | Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:10 | Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:10 | Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:10 | Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:10 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 16:09 | US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2075385902 | $20.00 |
| 09-28 16:08 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999999 | $10.00 |