gesst
0xadaf1c42e0a88e2942e7adfe559e30c1796bf9f2
- Realised P&L
- $46.8k
- Volume
- $1.63M
- Markets traded
- 586
- Open portfolio
- $4.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded586
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.1kat 0.423Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$5.5kat 0.831Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.3kat 0.206Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
- +$2.9kat 0.339Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$1.9kat 0.173Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:21 | Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.117 | $2.57 |
| 11-01 17:21 | Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1155 | $23.10 |
| 10-31 21:29 | Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $178.00 |
| 10-31 21:25 | Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9558044554 | $154.46 |
| 10-31 21:17 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $109.50 |
| 10-31 21:16 | Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.902 | $180.40 |
| 10-29 19:34 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.53 | $84.79 |
| 10-29 19:24 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $92.79 |
| 10-29 17:38 | Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.7 | $140.00 |
| 10-29 17:18 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.23 | $114.59 |
| 10-29 17:10 | Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.38 | $38.00 |
| 10-29 16:41 | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.56 | $1.66 |
| 10-29 16:41 | Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.3586877828 | $9.51 |
| 10-28 14:31 | Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.31 | $31.00 |
| 10-23 19:31 | Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Florida? | BUY | 0.6612216127 | $112.10 |