ErnstKuzorra
0xad8e0a79c34730774cfb1870d9fbdc0bfa45776e
- Realised P&L
- $-8.4k
- Volume
- $1.46M
- Markets traded
- 630
- Open portfolio
- $16.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded630
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.945 | $3.0k | +$18.30 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.696 | 0.715 | $2.1k | +$54.20 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.832 | 0.825 | $2.0k | −$17.74 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.981 | 0.989 | $2.0k | +$14.01 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.981 | $2.0k | +$41.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.955 | $1.9k | +$50.00 |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.915 | 0.952 | $1.9k | +$72.82 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.964 | $963.99 | +$53.50 |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.009 | $548.09 | +$38.25 |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? · No | 0.916 | 0.944 | $418.19 | +$12.43 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 1? · No | 0.888 | 1.000 | $165.92 | +$18.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.992MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.487Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$1.1kat 0.651Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5
- +$1.0kat 0.412Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
- +$1.0kat 0.667Will France win on 2026-06-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:38 | Ravens vs. Bills | BUY | 0.7799999997 | $500.00 |
| 11-01 09:23 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.888 | $12.43 |
| 11-01 09:23 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.888 | $8.88 |
| 11-01 09:23 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 1? | BUY | 0.8876478873 | $126.05 |
| 11-01 09:22 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or higher on November 1? | BUY | 0.9770936455 | $146.08 |
| 11-01 09:20 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $134.89 |
| 11-01 09:20 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.977 | $16.61 |
| 10-28 13:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.948 | $1.5k |
| 10-26 13:13 | Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.9311268855 | $188.89 |
| 10-25 07:07 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $3.2k |
| 10-24 19:19 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $312.32 |
| 10-18 18:35 | Chargers vs. Chiefs | SELL | 0.78 | $246.83 |
| 10-18 18:35 | Commanders vs. 49ers | SELL | 0.78 | $250.00 |
| 10-18 17:41 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 13-19? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.10 |
| 10-18 17:41 | Ravens vs. Browns | SELL | 0.82 | $942.58 |