LR1
0xad287cbd7db82d684a5066515c7ee624df111601
- Realised P&L
- $12.5k
- Volume
- $3.06M
- Markets traded
- 1,062
- Open portfolio
- $23.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,062
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.9kat 0.319Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$5.7kat 0.001US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$5.2kat 0.583Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$3.8kat 0.354Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$3.5kat 0.831Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 02:33 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.6k |
| 10-31 08:13 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $117.94 |
| 10-31 08:11 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $230.00 |
| 10-31 08:10 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $276.00 |
| 10-31 08:05 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $547.96 |
| 10-31 06:39 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $330.75 |
| 10-31 06:38 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 10-31 06:36 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $26.00 |
| 10-31 06:35 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.94 | $188.00 |
| 10-31 06:34 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.06 | $7.56 |
| 10-26 20:09 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $301.00 |
| 10-22 12:53 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.091 | $6.25 |
| 10-16 21:52 | Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.922 | $18.44 |
| 10-10 06:29 | Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 10-10 06:28 | Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.38 | $38.00 |