PolyBot

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Traders

Holzlump

0xacf85ee2231b25a64caa38cac2ff840cac4ff499

Realised P&L
$131.67
Volume
$2.1k
Markets traded
23
Open portfolio
$32.31

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar6.3%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded23
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration66.8% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample11 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · No0.8000.870$21.75+$1.75
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? · Yes0.7200.175$4.86$15.14
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1300.045$1.73$3.27
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1300.041$1.56$3.44
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1800.055$1.53$3.47
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.3700.065$0.88$4.12
Will the next James Bond be British? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00$20.00
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? · No0.4400.000$0.00$15.00
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? · No0.5000.000$0.00$20.00
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? · No0.3220.000$0.00$20.00
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? · Yes0.6400.000$0.00$100.00
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before July? · Yes0.0790.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
12-22 20:49Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?BUY0.4399999847$15.00
12-22 20:48Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?BUY0.7799998596$5.00
12-22 20:45Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.1299999789$5.00
12-22 20:44Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?BUY0.8604285885$25.00
12-22 20:42Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.1799999755$5.00
12-22 20:40Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?BUY0.3699999674$5.00
12-22 20:40Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1299999789$5.00
12-22 20:37US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?BUY0.5$20.00
12-22 20:36Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?BUY0.8$20.00
12-22 20:36Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?BUY0.72$20.00
12-22 20:34Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?BUY0.967$100.00
11-05 21:07Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?BUY0.95$113.86
11-05 21:04Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?BUY0.9399999962$5.00
11-05 21:01Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?BUY0.9454674287$100.00
11-05 20:59Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?BUY0.94$51.26