Holzlump
0xacf85ee2231b25a64caa38cac2ff840cac4ff499
- Realised P&L
- $131.67
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $32.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.870 | $21.75 | +$1.75 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.175 | $4.86 | −$15.14 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.045 | $1.73 | −$3.27 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.041 | $1.56 | −$3.44 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.055 | $1.53 | −$3.47 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.065 | $0.88 | −$4.12 |
| Will the next James Bond be British? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? · No | 0.322 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before July? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$230.15at 0.521Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$46.45at 0.523Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$30.80at 0.722NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?
- +$18.39at 0.945Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?
- +$8.04at 0.918Russian strike on Poland by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-22 20:49 | Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? | BUY | 0.4399999847 | $15.00 |
| 12-22 20:48 | Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799998596 | $5.00 |
| 12-22 20:45 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 12-22 20:44 | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BUY | 0.8604285885 | $25.00 |
| 12-22 20:42 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 12-22 20:40 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 12-22 20:40 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 12-22 20:37 | US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |
| 12-22 20:36 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 12-22 20:36 | Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $20.00 |
| 12-22 20:34 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31? | BUY | 0.967 | $100.00 |
| 11-05 21:07 | Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $113.86 |
| 11-05 21:04 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 11-05 21:01 | Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? | BUY | 0.9454674287 | $100.00 |
| 11-05 20:59 | Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $51.26 |