Konfucious
0xac761dd9b3a373cc9031dabaab1ecec546299359
- Realised P&L
- $4.8k
- Volume
- $266.9k
- Markets traded
- 731
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded731
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$187.28at 0.310Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
- +$163.48at 0.545U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?
- +$137.76at 0.011Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$117.24at 0.601Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
- +$107.94at 0.471Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 09:17 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $38.40 |
| 08-03 09:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $61.00 |
| 08-02 23:21 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.85 |
| 08-02 23:19 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $4.30 |
| 08-02 22:39 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $12.13 |
| 08-02 22:39 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $12.13 |
| 08-02 22:10 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $69.82 |
| 08-02 22:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $27.00 |
| 08-02 21:57 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $11.60 |
| 08-02 21:56 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $14.75 |
| 08-02 21:52 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.619 | $123.80 |
| 08-02 21:49 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4864344942 | $5.87 |
| 08-02 21:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $88.50 |
| 08-02 21:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $22.00 |
| 08-02 21:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $4.30 |