lux-oren
0xabce7f51a7ade663d9e1a326d5f11159aec4bff1
- Realised P&L
- $-56.85
- Volume
- $8.7k
- Markets traded
- 704
- Open portfolio
- $54.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded704
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.951 | $19.02 | +$2.82 |
| Will Eagles D/ST finish as a top-12 D/ST in the 2026-27 NFL season? · No | 0.820 | 0.675 | $13.50 | −$2.90 |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31? · Yes | 0.259 | 0.230 | $6.39 | −$0.81 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.265 | $5.30 | +$1.10 |
| Will Tetairoa McMillan finish as a top-12 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.235 | $4.70 | +$0.10 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.325 | $3.25 | −$0.15 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.130 | 0.120 | $2.40 | −$0.20 |
| Solana Up or Down - September 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET · Down | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.97 |
| Solana Up or Down - February 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET · Down | 0.288 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.30at 0.344Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
- +$17.45at 0.610Solana Up or Down - February 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
- +$17.14at 0.732Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
- +$12.82at 0.050XRP Up or Down - February 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
- +$12.58at 0.236Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 10:09 | Solana Up or Down - September 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | BUY | 0.15 | $2.97 |
| 03-21 05:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET | BUY | 0.43 | $3.71 |
| 03-21 04:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | BUY | 0.52 | $4.23 |
| 03-21 01:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $0.71 |
| 03-20 18:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5006976744 | $4.17 |
| 03-20 17:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $0.18 |
| 03-20 14:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.66 |
| 03-20 12:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $0.09 |
| 03-19 01:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET | BUY | 0.46 | $3.97 |
| 03-19 00:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET | BUY | 0.009 | $0.08 |
| 03-13 17:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $0.65 |
| 03-13 17:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | BUY | 0.57 | $4.48 |
| 03-13 12:44 | Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | BUY | 0.52 | $4.03 |
| 03-13 12:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.1 | $0.80 |
| 03-13 10:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $2.50 |