PolyBot

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Traders

SlenderMan

0xab19716584931d81cd9e7763402673a64baa4876

Realised P&L
$-224.2k
Volume
$70.08M
Markets traded
448
Open portfolio
$364.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded448
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8340.835$108.2k+$149.30
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No0.9900.996$79.0k+$467.29
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No0.6820.720$67.9k+$3.6k
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · No0.8330.855$31.6k+$825.25
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.7400.745$22.2k+$149.17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.7210.915$14.1k+$3.0k
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.4690.685$11.8k+$3.7k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.9300.992$9.9k+$610.48
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · No0.7070.795$5.1k+$564.97
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? · No0.7130.905$4.4k+$922.97
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? · No0.7540.845$3.5k+$381.66
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes0.8600.935$2.9k+$234.89
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No0.9870.991$2.1k+$7.50
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · No0.4600.445$585.69$19.74
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.5000.775$485.63+$172.32

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 18:09US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?SELL0.999$2.3k
09-16 13:01Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL0.92$6.6k
09-14 13:48Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?SELL0.989$2.2k
09-01 04:10NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?BUY0.998$328.61
09-01 01:06NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?BUY0.994$298.20
09-01 01:06NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?BUY0.992$109.12
08-31 15:46NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?BUY0.992$198.40
08-27 12:16NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?BUY0.97$20.8k
08-26 00:55Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY0.88$399.52
08-25 23:57Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY0.88$34.3k
08-19 20:50Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?BUY0.999$274.63
08-19 19:30Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.999$24.9k
08-19 19:27Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?BUY0.998$1.3k
08-19 19:27Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9964720459$1.4k
08-19 19:27Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?BUY0.998$2.5k