SlenderMan
0xab19716584931d81cd9e7763402673a64baa4876
- Realised P&L
- $-286.6k
- Volume
- $67.68M
- Markets traded
- 428
- Open portfolio
- $208.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded428
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · No | 0.898 | 0.875 | $165.8k | −$4.4k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.888 | 0.945 | $16.5k | +$994.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.721 | 0.860 | $13.3k | +$2.2k |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.463 | 0.455 | $4.2k | −$76.60 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? · No | 0.694 | 0.885 | $3.8k | +$818.99 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.925 | $2.9k | +$203.57 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.810 | $1.3k | +$30.91 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.655 | $410.44 | +$97.13 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.585 | $244.05 | −$47.98 |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.790 | $68.41 | +$1.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$181.5kat 0.022No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
- +$43.3kat 0.088US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$33.0kat 0.070Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$32.2kat 0.031Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$28.2kat 0.998Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 14:11 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $37.31 |
| 07-29 14:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.113 | $201.65 |
| 07-28 21:31 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.6050191839 | $1.1k |
| 07-27 15:13 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.509 | $500.30 |
| 07-27 14:10 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.504 | $8.03 |
| 07-27 14:03 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.504 | $7.04 |
| 07-27 13:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.507 | $284.07 |
| 07-27 12:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.5099003729 | $843.67 |
| 07-22 17:38 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.952 | $569.71 |
| 07-21 23:58 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.91 | $5.3k |
| 07-21 23:31 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.983 | $13.1k |
| 07-18 09:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.3k |
| 07-18 08:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $9.08 |
| 07-17 11:58 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.9849901366 | $15.7k |
| 07-17 09:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.6k |