TheSerafim...
0xaa79e6b5ae627572b935fe04f4aec3b51b00c199
- Realised P&L
- $-44.86
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $4.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration30.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.060 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.025 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.034 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.026 | $0.63 | −$0.37 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.005 | $0.29 | −$0.71 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? · No | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? · No | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.95 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 17:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 17:00 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 16:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | BUY | 0.0179999825 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 16:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 16:55 | NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? | BUY | 0.0179999825 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 16:54 | US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0474542321 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 16:53 | US x China Military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.0419999612 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 16:53 | US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.0219999787 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 16:52 | Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? | BUY | 0.0485638514 | $1.00 |
| 08-15 12:54 | Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? | BUY | 0.012 | $5.00 |
| 08-14 12:19 | Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? | BUY | 0.0377370811 | $34.95 |