rfsd
0xaa62619b3d8a1779d313911a21260f3f9ed5fe16
- Realised P&L
- $-29.18
- Volume
- $59.2k
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $36.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.60at 0.392Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?
- +$1.50at 0.013Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.34at 0.599Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$1.17at 0.630Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13?
- +$1.11at 0.730US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 14:25 | Iran leadership change by November 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 09-29 14:24 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.9099992538 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 14:24 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 09-29 14:24 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 14:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 14:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8599997764 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 14:23 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 14:22 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 14:22 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 14:22 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 08:52 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 08:51 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 08:51 | Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999877 | $3.00 |
| 08-30 08:51 | Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.00 |
| 08-30 08:51 | Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.00 |