holmman
0xaa41cbe5cfc5420179eb1316cdf5acbcc596f0ac
- Realised P&L
- $178.21
- Volume
- $25.1k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $50.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$223.76at 0.025Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?
- +$117.83at 0.081Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?
- +$91.04at 0.102Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
- +$70.07at 0.069Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$69.75at 0.225Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 02:38 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7879999954 | $20.00 |
| 10-25 02:37 | Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7299999974 | $20.00 |
| 10-25 02:37 | Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $10.00 |
| 10-25 02:36 | Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1287128708 | $10.00 |
| 10-25 02:35 | Will Luis de la Fuente win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Coach of the Year award? | BUY | 0.2297297285 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 02:35 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0106193392 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 02:34 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.2979999909 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 01:31 | Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 01:30 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.25 | $6.00 |
| 10-25 01:27 | Will Luis Enrique win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Coach of the Year award? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 01:26 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.008 | $2.00 |
| 10-24 17:30 | Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-24 17:29 | Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.1099999995 | $15.00 |
| 10-24 17:28 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $5.00 |
| 10-24 17:28 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $20.00 |