PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

holmman

0xaa41cbe5cfc5420179eb1316cdf5acbcc596f0ac

Realised P&L
$178.21
Volume
$25.1k
Markets traded
116
Open portfolio
$50.99

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded116
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample44 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)95.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes0.1100.135$18.41+$3.41
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · No0.4300.305$14.19−$5.81
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes0.0600.115$9.58+$4.58
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.1500.032$4.20−$15.80
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.4630.159$3.43−$6.57
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.3600.085$1.18−$3.82
Will France win on 2026-06-16? · No0.3400.000$0.00−$3.00
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? · No0.2900.000$0.00−$3.00
Will Sergio Fajardo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes0.0360.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes0.0650.000$0.00−$3.25
Will Sergio Fajardo place 1st in the Antioquia Department? · Yes0.0160.000$0.00−$10.08
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 30% and 35% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? · Yes0.3800.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? · No0.2900.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.7880.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-25 02:38Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.7879999954$20.00
10-25 02:37Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.7299999974$20.00
10-25 02:37Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.7899999905$10.00
10-25 02:36Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.1287128708$10.00
10-25 02:35Will Luis de la Fuente win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Coach of the Year award?BUY0.2297297285$5.00
10-25 02:35Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.0106193392$5.00
10-25 02:34Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.2979999909$5.00
10-25 01:31Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.0699999965$1.00
10-25 01:30Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?BUY0.25$6.00
10-25 01:27Will Luis Enrique win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Coach of the Year award?BUY0.1899999962$1.00
10-25 01:26Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.008$2.00
10-24 17:30Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?BUY0.0599999995$5.00
10-24 17:29Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?BUY0.1099999995$15.00
10-24 17:28Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?BUY0.3599999971$5.00
10-24 17:28Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?BUY0.4299999991$20.00