ScottNguyen2159
0xa9aeaedfb559e1f700f62df90d3068f3c9678598
- Realised P&L
- $558.55
- Volume
- $280.7k
- Markets traded
- 262
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded262
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.920 | $612.72 | +$186.48 |
| T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka · Sri Lanka | 0.470 | 0.500 | $440.50 | +$26.43 |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? · No | 0.922 | 0.989 | $214.21 | +$14.41 |
| ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka · Sri Lanka | 0.790 | 0.490 | $195.51 | −$119.70 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.742 | 0.175 | $136.19 | −$439.60 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.535 | $89.34 | −$24.21 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · OpenAI | 0.360 | 0.061 | $52.58 | −$255.22 |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? · O 84.5 | 0.350 | 0.066 | $36.63 | −$157.62 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · No | 0.330 | 0.155 | $0.62 | −$0.70 |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.011 | $0.04 | −$0.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$817.02at 0.110Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5
- +$733.92at 0.120Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?
- +$562.50at 0.230Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$386.80at 0.600Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces
- +$383.89at 0.270Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 08:57 | CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $234.36 |
| 04-24 02:52 | CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31? | BUY | 0.28 | $234.36 |
| 04-21 03:01 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $294.64 |
| 04-13 16:26 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $25.52 |
| 04-13 09:10 | Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.191 | $212.77 |
| 04-13 05:23 | Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.14 | $36.12 |
| 04-13 01:22 | Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.197 | $219.46 |
| 04-13 01:04 | Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | BUY | 0.14 | $36.12 |
| 04-13 00:14 | Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018 end in a draw? | BUY | 0.719 | $854.89 |
| 04-12 21:54 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $460.23 |
| 04-12 21:33 | Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? | SELL | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 04-12 21:31 | Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? | SELL | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 04-12 21:30 | Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? | SELL | 0.86 | $644.14 |
| 04-12 21:29 | Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? | SELL | 0.87 | $167.04 |
| 04-12 19:44 | Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.45 | $58.95 |