0xa98635f52B68bB67D1E2f4659874B48681A130f6-1768406742773
0xa98635f52b68bb67d1e2f4659874b48681a130f6
- Realised P&L
- $-220.57
- Volume
- $26.5k
- Markets traded
- 371
- Open portfolio
- $55.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded371
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.719 | 0.716 | $35.78 | −$0.18 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.230 | 0.225 | $11.25 | −$0.25 |
| Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.440 | $8.80 | −$1.60 |
| Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 3? · No | 0.922 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.10 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 20? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 24? · No | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 4? · No | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.20 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 3? · No | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C or below on September 16? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.00at 0.120Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$21.06at 0.737WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 1?
- +$18.70at 0.341Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
- +$18.35at 0.630US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$17.57at 0.740Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 15:13 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $10.50 |
| 10-08 13:38 | Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 10-07 22:56 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $29.00 |
| 10-06 05:31 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 10-06 01:45 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 10-06 00:05 | Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting? | SELL | 0.52 | $10.40 |
| 10-04 14:13 | Spain snap election called in 2026? | SELL | 0.1714705882 | $5.83 |
| 10-03 16:54 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.80 |
| 10-03 08:33 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $13.50 |
| 10-02 23:09 | Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 10-02 16:18 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $0.51 |
| 10-02 16:16 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $22.50 |
| 10-01 12:20 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $5.00 |
| 10-01 12:20 | Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $9.50 |
| 10-01 12:19 | Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.00 |