notlosecrypto
0xa83a50bd49987854225384e3df1efbc276681e64
- Realised P&L
- $-367.05
- Volume
- $379.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%? · Yes | 0.639 | 0.635 | $995.37 | −$5.61 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.037 | $182.74 | −$817.25 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes | 0.166 | 0.404 | $169.99 | +$99.99 |
| Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.365 | 0.175 | $95.79 | −$104.21 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.60 |
| Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$170.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 24-30? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.387 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.136Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
- +$748.75at 0.430Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
- +$315.47at 0.767Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$165.07at 0.859Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 24?
- +$104.00at 0.417Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on August 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 08:10 | Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3653788549 | $200.00 |
| 09-28 10:33 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? | BUY | 0.9421549817 | $90.00 |
| 09-25 14:48 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? | BUY | 0.877881549 | $192.70 |
| 09-24 10:01 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in September? | BUY | 0.8292061117 | $242.78 |
| 09-17 03:35 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2741421107 | $500.00 |
| 09-16 04:05 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1639722958 | $500.00 |
| 09-15 18:53 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $233.33 |
| 09-15 09:45 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 07:55 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-15 02:45 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.002 | $55.35 |
| 09-11 04:20 | Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%? | BUY | 0.6567672735 | $420.00 |
| 09-09 16:08 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.82% in September? | BUY | 0.9546370229 | $100.00 |
| 09-09 16:05 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.85% in September? | BUY | 0.7968960897 | $240.00 |
| 09-09 04:18 | Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%? | BUY | 0.5490311191 | $34.00 |
| 09-09 03:04 | Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%? | BUY | 0.5819999972 | $45.00 |