7203
0xa7496c149585af67a6b31e08bc33797459f06a65
- Realised P&L
- $151.27
- Volume
- $211.2k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.554 | 0.655 | $3.0k | +$460.26 |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.011 | $331.14 | −$323.05 |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.005 | $55.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.009 | $8.50 | −$0.50 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · No | 0.959 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.978US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$502.97at 0.995US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
- +$426.58at 0.690Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$296.48at 0.134Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$211.32at 0.032Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-02 08:41 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $260.00 |
| 06-02 08:36 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999983 | $100.00 |
| 05-31 10:44 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $98.50 |
| 05-29 11:07 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5672839028 | $1.9k |
| 05-25 12:24 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? | SELL | 0.992 | $99.20 |
| 05-04 11:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? | BUY | 0.879 | $87.90 |
| 05-04 11:10 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $83.00 |
| 04-06 06:38 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.959 | $40.83 |
| 04-01 08:23 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.995 | $2.1k |
| 03-30 19:13 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.953 | $2.0k |
| 03-30 19:12 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | SELL | 0.0891795832 | $28.80 |
| 03-15 19:46 | Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.9640391012 | $54.49 |
| 03-15 19:19 | Will It Was Just An Accident win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.037 | $3.65 |
| 03-15 19:15 | Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.07 | $5.99 |
| 03-15 19:13 | Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.22 | $22.00 |