0xA5c233BE02d2009C9ce9D5c73E6990addB0133D2-1742381557194
0xa5c233be02d2009c9ce9d5c73e6990addb0133d2
- Realised P&L
- $374.91
- Volume
- $19.4k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $49.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.085 | $40.38 | −$59.61 |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.044 | $9.41 | −$20.59 |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? · Yes | 0.481 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$467.02at 0.461India military action against Pakistan before June?
- +$197.72at 0.469Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15?
- +$174.43at 0.079India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?
- +$149.35at 0.770Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$134.88at 0.602Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 16:47 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2104747543 | $100.00 |
| 09-20 16:47 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.1403450559 | $30.00 |
| 07-19 18:16 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5899999991 | $200.00 |
| 04-27 23:30 | Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.4809999997 | $500.00 |
| 04-10 14:21 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7699999985 | $500.00 |
| 04-10 14:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $28.44 |
| 03-29 11:58 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.32 | $130.00 |
| 03-29 11:55 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $200.00 |
| 02-28 09:10 | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | SELL | 0.393 | $193.28 |
| 02-22 22:43 | Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | BUY | 0.6099999993 | $300.00 |
| 01-13 23:24 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.2099999968 | $50.00 |
| 10-05 17:00 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.9539999999 | $290.00 |
| 10-04 16:11 | Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? | BUY | 0.2799999928 | $25.00 |
| 10-04 16:11 | Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? | BUY | 0.6499999948 | $100.00 |
| 10-04 16:09 | Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? | SELL | 0.7157676666 | $290.39 |