PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xA4C415134B9a2bF11a08B5F52cB77AF900F2e42D-1766616940921

0xa4c415134b9a2bf11a08b5f52cb77af900f2e42d

Realised P&L
$-1.2k
Volume
$740.9k
Markets traded
431
Open portfolio
$1.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded431
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · No0.6500.325$325.00$325.00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.9190.837$167.40$16.40
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No0.8200.795$159.00$5.00
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.7200.655$131.00$13.00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No0.5400.500$100.00$8.00
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.6700.485$97.00$37.00
Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo? · Yes0.7320.355$42.60$45.20
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? · Yes0.8300.003$0.06$16.54
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 2–3%? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00$20.00
LAPTOP FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$0.20
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? · No0.7700.000$0.00$154.00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? · No0.0010.000$0.00$0.20
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%? · Yes0.0560.000$0.00$6.72
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–6%? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00$11.00
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$0.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-21 04:17Will Lacy & Marlon Win the Jynxzi Fortnite Tournament?SELL0.001$0.14
09-21 01:02Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?SELL0.0204754$3.07
09-21 01:01Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?SELL0.1$30.00
09-21 01:00Will Lacy & Marlon Win the Jynxzi Fortnite Tournament?SELL0.01$0.30
09-20 16:53Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?SELL0.21$4.20
09-20 16:52Will Ben Dudman win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?SELL0.32$6.40
09-20 16:09Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?SELL0.12$5.76
09-20 15:32Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.421$84.20
09-19 21:48Will Thug Win the 2026 Esports Personality of the Year Award?SELL0.66$38.66
09-19 21:43Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?SELL0.83$41.50
09-19 00:47Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELL0.74$148.00
09-18 23:22Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?SELL0.299$14.38
09-18 23:07Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?SELL0.38$38.00
09-11 12:36Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.196608958$54.74
09-10 10:20LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?SELL0.001$0.10