cmnd7w
0xa39dce6d77303e97ac549d59392551e17a97511b
- Realised P&L
- $-284.04
- Volume
- $14.2k
- Markets traded
- 132
- Open portfolio
- $661.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded132
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.80at 0.241Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
- +$42.71at 0.200Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
- +$33.47at 0.277Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
- +$32.80at 0.340Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?
- +$25.27at 0.247Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 10:31 | Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? | BUY | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 10-13 10:00 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 6%-9%? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.40 |
| 10-13 09:42 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5719999945 | $24.36 |
| 10-13 09:41 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.62 | $5.58 |
| 10-13 09:31 | Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election? | BUY | 0.84 | $36.55 |
| 10-13 08:18 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.55 | $14.85 |
| 10-13 08:02 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $3.40 |
| 10-13 08:02 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | BUY | 0.3399999998 | $36.00 |
| 10-13 07:06 | Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 10-13 07:06 | Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $11.25 |
| 10-13 06:32 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $68.00 |
| 10-13 06:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $27.93 |
| 10-13 05:48 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999995 | $44.28 |
| 10-13 05:32 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 10-13 05:02 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on October 14? | BUY | 0.51 | $5.10 |