0xa2fcb3047f2117434782f04b101f7a8c8315e3ec
- Realised P&L
- $13.37
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $61.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.29at 0.420Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
- +$5.26at 0.658Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?
- +$1.64at 0.425Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?
- +$1.34at 0.560Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
- +$0.88at 0.700Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 17:41 | Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.983 | $0.01 |
| 07-14 17:23 | Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.983 | $0.01 |
| 07-14 04:43 | Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.983 | $0.06 |
| 07-10 10:55 | Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.983 | $0.04 |
| 07-03 21:56 | Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.983 | $0.01 |
| 06-28 14:28 | Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | SELL | 0.983 | $0.06 |
| 06-25 00:50 | Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.41 |
| 06-25 00:32 | Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? | SELL | 0.969 | $0.83 |
| 06-25 00:30 | Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? | SELL | 0.969 | $0.11 |
| 06-23 10:15 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0419999646 | $1.09 |
| 06-23 10:15 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0419999646 | $1.09 |
| 06-23 10:15 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0419999646 | $1.09 |
| 06-23 10:12 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.042 | $0.84 |
| 06-22 21:02 | Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.04 |
| 06-22 20:59 | Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.07 |