0xa2fcb3047f2117434782f04b101f7a8c8315e3ec
- Realised P&L
- $26.98
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $46.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.29at 0.420Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
- +$5.26at 0.658Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?
- +$1.64at 0.425Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?
- +$1.34at 0.560Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
- +$0.88at 0.700Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 19:11 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.28 |
| 08-31 17:00 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.34 |
| 08-29 21:21 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.05 |
| 08-28 09:46 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.06 |
| 08-27 00:27 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.09 |
| 08-23 15:00 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.12 |
| 08-18 16:44 | Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.05 |
| 08-18 06:54 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.03 |
| 08-17 20:53 | Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.0339999698 | $1.05 |
| 08-16 19:46 | Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.05 |
| 08-16 16:03 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.01 |
| 08-16 14:55 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.01 |
| 08-16 13:46 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.01 |
| 08-16 13:30 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.31 |
| 08-16 02:54 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.01 |