ICTRADING
0xa28cea90f23798fcfa4806d0c8927c95fdb3e10f
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $261.4k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.932 | 0.941 | $888.45 | +$8.03 |
| Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.825 | $744.15 | +$85.69 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.789 | 0.960 | $714.11 | +$126.84 |
| Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.973 | $131.23 | +$8.43 |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.630 | $12.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.57 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.20 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.299 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$149.65 |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$610.20at 0.919GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
- +$354.88at 0.964Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?
- +$224.00at 0.710US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
- +$190.53at 0.807Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$188.16at 0.932Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 20:24 | Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $12.00 |
| 10-30 02:01 | Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $30.89 |
| 10-30 02:01 | Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 10-28 15:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.95434192 | $2.9k |
| 10-17 06:52 | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | SELL | 0.61 | $55.60 |
| 10-14 19:53 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $628.25 |
| 10-14 19:51 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $42.32 |
| 09-29 17:37 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8691686066 | $313.63 |
| 09-28 22:43 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.8917355372 | $107.90 |
| 09-28 22:22 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9345454545 | $205.60 |
| 09-13 06:30 | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | SELL | 0.810529313 | $333.05 |
| 09-04 09:32 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.59 | $590.00 |
| 09-04 09:31 | Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6316845487 | $98.32 |
| 09-03 23:23 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9422022537 | $521.75 |
| 09-02 16:35 | Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2936666057 | $16.07 |