kaladin
0xa23dec5a387b1605613aa7ca6e4f91729a99a396
- Realised P&L
- $552.92
- Volume
- $15.9k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $763.83
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.930 | $682.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams? · Yes | 0.827 | 0.615 | $74.40 | −$25.60 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.085 | $4.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.019 | $2.71 | +$0.71 |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3? · Up | 0.039 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year? · Yes | 0.286 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$159.97at 0.797Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
- +$136.70at 0.771Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
- +$67.31at 0.810Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$63.77at 0.820Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
- +$44.61at 0.870Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80000 on April 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 03:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $682.00 |
| 09-25 03:16 | Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.014 | $2.00 |
| 09-25 03:16 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 03:14 | Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams? | BUY | 0.8266575688 | $100.00 |
| 09-25 03:01 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $789.88 |
| 08-21 05:59 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999998 | $624.63 |
| 07-14 14:16 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7747346651 | $88.03 |
| 07-14 14:16 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9466582957 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 14:15 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8800183044 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 13:28 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9516110718 | $200.00 |
| 06-22 12:01 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.95 | $497.00 |
| 06-22 12:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.95 | $100.00 |
| 06-21 11:08 | Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 11:07 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $0.99 |
| 05-10 03:10 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7712792078 | $461.00 |