tedward111
0xa21830f241f888e66c3ed3f144e5fc00793e94cd
- Realised P&L
- $7.1k
- Volume
- $1.09M
- Markets traded
- 259
- Open portfolio
- $10.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded259
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.707No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
- +$2.0kat 0.370Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
- +$1.7kat 0.669Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$1.7kat 0.982Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$1.6kat 0.180Trump wins every swing state?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 05:55 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.028 | $34.11 |
| 10-19 02:29 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.14 | $360.73 |
| 10-15 10:31 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0149878991 | $62.29 |
| 08-27 18:58 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.158 | $79.00 |
| 08-22 17:11 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.148 | $34.54 |
| 08-19 00:15 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.931 | $50.77 |
| 08-19 00:14 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.9377058824 | $32.36 |
| 08-19 00:14 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.9393333333 | $74.54 |
| 08-19 00:13 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.947 | $14.21 |
| 08-19 00:13 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.944 | $14.16 |
| 08-19 00:12 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.94 | $151.91 |
| 08-04 14:40 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 07-30 20:43 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.056 | $114.67 |
| 07-21 05:48 | Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | SELL | 0.85 | $62.90 |
| 07-21 05:48 | Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | SELL | 0.973 | $29.29 |