tedward111
0xa21830f241f888e66c3ed3f144e5fc00793e94cd
- Realised P&L
- $8.2k
- Volume
- $1.08M
- Markets traded
- 253
- Open portfolio
- $8.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded253
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.707No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
- +$2.0kat 0.371Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
- +$1.8kat 0.981Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$1.7kat 0.669Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$1.6kat 0.180Trump wins every swing state?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 20:43 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.056 | $114.67 |
| 07-21 05:48 | Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | SELL | 0.85 | $62.90 |
| 07-21 05:48 | Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | SELL | 0.973 | $29.29 |
| 07-18 18:31 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.61 | $244.00 |
| 07-18 18:30 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.61 | $122.00 |
| 06-21 09:49 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.094 | $52.17 |
| 05-28 21:02 | Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.34 | $36.66 |
| 05-19 21:05 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.62 | $868.00 |
| 05-19 17:17 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.62 | $1.1k |
| 05-19 16:54 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.62 | $744.00 |
| 05-19 15:03 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | SELL | 0.429 | $76.07 |
| 05-19 14:48 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | SELL | 0.439 | $90.00 |
| 04-28 23:37 | Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? | BUY | 0.79 | $163.35 |
| 04-12 14:01 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.595 | $252.26 |
| 04-12 14:00 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.604 | $38.66 |