PolyBot

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Traders

nkolbet51

0xa177c3c893fcb53f7c8a72caac0e8175ac796e84

Realised P&L
$-15.5k
Volume
$444.7k
Markets traded
252
Open portfolio
$7.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded252
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration60.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.8730.865$4.8k−$43.99
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? · No0.9550.967$2.0k+$25.28
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9600.983$1.0k+$23.96
Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat? · Yes0.6800.630$34.28−$2.72
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2900.125$9.91−$13.09
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5 · Under0.5000.000$0.00−$100.00
Astros vs. Blue Jays · Astros0.4000.000$0.00−$100.00
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) · San Diego Padres0.4980.000$0.00−$100.00
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5 · Under0.5220.000$0.00−$450.00
Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 40.5 · Over0.5300.000$0.00−$100.00
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) · Golden Knights0.4200.000$0.00−$2.7k
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 · Under0.5200.000$0.00−$200.00
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.4340.000$0.00−$826.00
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5 · Under0.4890.000$0.00−$3.0k
Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 · Over0.5200.000$0.00−$100.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-30 17:18Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?BUY0.6799999963$37.00
10-30 04:40Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.874547503$3.9k
10-30 04:39Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.866705479$1.0k
10-05 19:32Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9529868479$986.00
09-28 17:14NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2899999994$23.00
09-26 22:25Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9566861348$1000.00
09-26 22:21Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0178429817$5.00
09-19 21:46Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.6689999842$26.00
09-19 20:42Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.5280228774$500.00
09-19 19:00Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.3029672629$100.00
09-19 05:28Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.96$1000.00
09-19 05:24Will United Russia win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?BUY0.9731353684$1000.00
09-19 05:03Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.3406446595$200.00
09-19 05:00Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?BUY0.346191889$100.00
09-19 01:37Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0498753117$20.00