nkolbet51
0xa177c3c893fcb53f7c8a72caac0e8175ac796e84
- Realised P&L
- $-15.5k
- Volume
- $444.7k
- Markets traded
- 252
- Open portfolio
- $7.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded252
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.9kat 0.460Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 233.5
- +$3.4kat 0.470Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5
- +$3.2kat 0.480Nets vs. Clippers: O/U 212.5
- +$3.0kat 0.530Wild vs. Predators: O/U 6.5
- +$3.0kat 0.502Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 17:18 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat? | BUY | 0.6799999963 | $37.00 |
| 10-30 04:40 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.874547503 | $3.9k |
| 10-30 04:39 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.866705479 | $1.0k |
| 10-05 19:32 | Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9529868479 | $986.00 |
| 09-28 17:14 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999994 | $23.00 |
| 09-26 22:25 | Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9566861348 | $1000.00 |
| 09-26 22:21 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0178429817 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 21:46 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6689999842 | $26.00 |
| 09-19 20:42 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.5280228774 | $500.00 |
| 09-19 19:00 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.3029672629 | $100.00 |
| 09-19 05:28 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $1000.00 |
| 09-19 05:24 | Will United Russia win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections? | BUY | 0.9731353684 | $1000.00 |
| 09-19 05:03 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.3406446595 | $200.00 |
| 09-19 05:00 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.346191889 | $100.00 |
| 09-19 01:37 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0498753117 | $20.00 |