0x9e71c4fdfc3f0f658f79e410edf953a040ac3f4a
0x9e71c4fdfc3f0f658f79e410edf953a040ac3f4a
- Realised P&L
- $2.75
- Volume
- $268.01
- Markets traded
- 120
- Open portfolio
- $7.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded120
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $730 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.875 | $4.17 | +$3.17 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.955 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.700 | 0.745 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.355 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.003 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.14at 0.247Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by August 31?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.288Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$2.10at 0.329S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 23:17 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $730 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 22:52 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 14:30 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 01:16 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:47 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:27 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 06:26 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 22:26 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 13:08 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 8? | BUY | 0.6689999177 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:15 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:37 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $187.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:21 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 18:20 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 09:54 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |