0x9DD1166E70def7e51b5871ca668D3f160CfAF50c-1723680507509
0x9dd1166e70def7e51b5871ca668d3f160cfaf50c
- Realised P&L
- $295.90
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.844 | 0.925 | $2.7k | +$235.49 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.960 | $192.00 | +$18.00 |
| Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.455 | $91.00 | −$59.00 |
| Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.510 | $16.36 | −$13.14 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.018 | $3.60 | −$3.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$116.02at 0.462Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$52.47at 0.849Megaquake by December 31?
- +$-1.41at 0.930Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$-49.12at 0.769Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-12 22:56 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.8499999997 | $2.0k |
| 05-12 22:25 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.85 | $227.09 |
| 05-11 23:45 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.7899999979 | $228.08 |
| 05-11 23:32 | Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? | BUY | 0.75 | $150.00 |
| 05-11 23:27 | Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government? | BUY | 0.9197346575 | $29.50 |
| 02-19 22:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.9210568139 | $145.58 |
| 02-19 22:31 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | SELL | 0.819 | $266.01 |
| 02-19 16:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $147.00 |
| 02-19 15:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.4618152734 | $150.00 |
| 01-07 10:22 | Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.66 | $297.34 |
| 01-02 23:15 | Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | BUY | 0.76903047 | $346.47 |
| 11-02 19:58 | Megaquake by December 31? | BUY | 0.8485678252 | $294.00 |