fishpapav
0x9ceaa567754c75f74db89f3085e0509d60f2a932
- Realised P&L
- $4.1k
- Volume
- $500.8k
- Markets traded
- 1,830
- Open portfolio
- $793.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,830
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.861 | 0.999 | $299.54 | +$41.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.629 | 0.495 | $291.87 | −$78.98 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.520 | $202.56 | −$124.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
- +$836.12at 0.050Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
- +$567.05at 0.415Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
- +$416.94at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$358.87at 0.701Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 22:54 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $384.48 |
| 10-03 22:54 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $121.28 |
| 10-03 21:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.861 | $258.29 |
| 10-03 21:37 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $327.21 |
| 10-03 17:35 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $132.31 |
| 10-03 17:19 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.6391176471 | $108.65 |
| 10-03 17:12 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $7.44 |
| 10-03 07:11 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $122.45 |
| 10-02 18:34 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9036130268 | $235.84 |
| 10-02 18:34 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.891875 | $228.32 |
| 10-01 18:08 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2703195594 | $154.13 |
| 10-01 18:07 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.738823792 | $198.62 |
| 10-01 18:07 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3876928756 | $168.04 |
| 10-01 18:06 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.11 |
| 10-01 18:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.4849062027 | $320.52 |