0x9abc6bdadc4dd83cdc04bad976fbfdf2d21d0053
0x9abc6bdadc4dd83cdc04bad976fbfdf2d21d0053
- Realised P&L
- $41.29
- Volume
- $22.6k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $209.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? · No | 0.389 | 1.000 | $147.79 | +$90.29 |
| Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $23.99 | +$0.15 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.822 | 0.974 | $21.00 | +$3.27 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? · No | 0.930 | 1.000 | $13.83 | +$0.97 |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.195 | $1.70 | −$0.30 |
| Will Matan Kahana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.052 | $0.63 | −$0.45 |
| Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.009 | $0.45 | +$0.06 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$146.45at 0.032US strikes Iraq by February 28?
- +$17.90at 0.675Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$12.79at 0.580Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
- +$6.53at 0.797Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
- +$2.38at 0.743Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 21:29 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.12 |
| 10-05 16:22 | Will Ofir Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? | SELL | 0.89 | $0.73 |
| 10-05 03:28 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9599999447 | $11.12 |
| 10-05 02:24 | Will Matan Kahana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 10-05 02:24 | Will Ofir Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? | SELL | 0.89 | $4.70 |
| 10-04 23:16 | Will Ofir Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? | SELL | 0.89 | $7.62 |
| 10-04 21:34 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.9299999993 | $12.86 |
| 10-04 21:34 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.0628754277 | $1.60 |
| 10-04 21:31 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | SELL | 0.972 | $14.60 |
| 10-04 20:47 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9189999892 | $4.83 |
| 10-04 20:46 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9219999939 | $9.01 |
| 10-04 18:34 | Will Ofir Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? | BUY | 0.9 | $13.20 |
| 10-04 18:33 | Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.3890736639 | $57.50 |
| 10-04 17:28 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 10-04 17:24 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.994 | $32.94 |