BigNerd
0x9a5029086b16aea298385b67f1e0c35b97cea045
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $95.2k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.512 | $512.50 | −$37.50 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.221 | $441.00 | −$119.00 |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.040 | $395.00 | +$165.00 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$214.24 |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 U.S. Open? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.46 |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.10 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.00 |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.095Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$1.7kat 0.130Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters?
- +$309.06at 0.539Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$226.30at 0.690Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
- +$218.94at 0.314Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 20:04 | Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 U.S. Open? | BUY | 0.0785127711 | $26.10 |
| 06-12 20:54 | Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.003 | $6.30 |
| 06-12 20:54 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.021 | $44.10 |
| 06-12 20:53 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.097 | $99.91 |
| 05-02 18:03 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.111 | $114.33 |
| 02-26 18:05 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.1 | $13.71 |
| 02-25 22:44 | Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.98 | $9.74 |
| 02-25 22:40 | Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.033 | $1.24 |
| 01-24 03:56 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or higher on January 24? | BUY | 0.023 | $0.16 |
| 01-22 20:25 | Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | BUY | 0.8185 | $163.70 |
| 01-22 20:24 | Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $34.92 |
| 01-21 22:45 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on January 22? | BUY | 0.049 | $1.47 |
| 01-21 17:24 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 60°F or higher on January 22? | BUY | 0.6873684211 | $26.12 |
| 01-10 00:32 | ICE shooter charged by March 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $142.00 |
| 01-08 18:03 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8? | SELL | 0.6 | $120.00 |